It has now been acknowledged by all and sundry that the coming financial crisis is huge and may rival the Great Depression of 1929-1932. The current US economy defined as GDP will probably take a hair cut of 50% and the world economy as a result can possibly halve from today till 2020. But this is a time when thrift and real old fashioned puritan American way of life will make a comeback in America and the rest of the world.
Here are my industrial predictions
1) Transportation as in railways and bicycles will benefit, cars are on the way out. Clean Mass transport is in. Oh, I would love to see the city of Pune, India explode with bicycles again.
2) Inner city malls will benefit. If you have a lease or own property in downtowns across the world, you will benefit. If you are outside the suburbs totally dependant on your cars, you are toast.
3) Skilled workers will be in demand. Yes, gardeners, metal workers, furniture workers, high rise specialty construction workers get ready for $15-40 per hour nirvana for a few decades at least.
4) Just in time is going to be proved to be a bunch of crock. Not when commodity supply to assemble it remotely is totally uncertain, and there is real risk of transport continuity.
5) Factories in America are going to enjoy a renaissance. Industrialists, if you are reading this, snap any old factories near ports and rail access points.
6) Speaking of ports, the rails and ports will enjoy a meteoric rise. I feel pity for Mack trucks and International and Volvo and other 18 wheeler manufacturers. Yeah, those rail stocks and port operations are going to rise.
7) Wind sails are going to make a massive comeback. The old time naval knowledge locked in the formerly great naval nations e.g. England, France, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal will be useful. Rig the mainmasts mates.
8) Solar is in, wind mills are in.
9) Best of all, consumerism is out, because you just can't get those metals cheaply anymore. No "new every two" free cellphones with two year contract.
10) I do not see a return to work animals, rather I see bicycle highways and bicycle driven local transport. Hey, you transport companies, do some M&A of the bicycle companies. It won't hurt to have a bicycle manufacturer in your group. Yes, Tata Motors, I am talking about you.
Long term short opportunities
1) Fertilizer companies are dead
2) Genetically modified food companies are toast
3) Plastics derived from oil
4) Pretty much every oil derived industry
5) Hydro-electric power companies (water needed for drinking and agriculture)
6) Meat related companies (meat packing, processing etc). Meat is out, veggie is in.
College graduates with non-marketable degrees, you know who you are, I feel pity for you guys. But no pity for the MBA's, if you guys didn't save any money, you will have to really learn to work.